China Reaches Peak Oil

China Reaches Peak Oil

China has been the cornerstone of the growth in global oil demand this century.

Speculation and estimates that China will reach its highest point of oil consumption sometime between 2025 and 2030 have made headlines over the last few years. Recent estimates suggested that might happen sooner rather than later. bloomberg.com, energypolicy.columbia.edu, iea.org

Some even suggested China reached peak oil in 2023. reuters.com

In 2024, China’s oil imports fell nearly 2%. ft.com

This was the first time in two decades that Chinese oil consumption has dropped.

Why the drop? There are at least three reasons.

First, it turns out that China already reached “peak diesel” last year as transportation fleets in the country were converted or replaced with trucks that use liquid natural gas. ft.com

Second, the growth of EV, PHEV and EREV sales (or New Energy Vehicles) in China accounted for more than 50% of vehicles sold back in the middle of 2024. reuters.com

Third, China's massive expansion of solar energy has supplanted fossil fuel consumption dramatically in a few short years. mashable.com

“Between 2017 and 2023, the operational solar capacity in China increased annually by about 40,000 megawatts. The US, in comparison, added an average of just over 8,000 megawatts per year over the same period” cleantechnica.com

“Currently under construction in the Kubuqi Desert along the southern edge of the Yellow River in northern China (in a broader autonomous region known as Inner Mongolia), the “Solar Great Wall” will stretch some 133 km long and 25 km wide. China hopes that the wall will provide a staggering 180 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) per year by 2030. According to Ordos Energy, the company behind the project, that’s more than enough to provide all of the energy needs for Beijing, which eats up around 135.8 billion kWh of energy per year.” popularmechanics.com

How does this impact countries around the rest of the world and their economies?

First, China’s EV ambitions will reshape global vehicle sales. Chinese EVs already account for 76% of all EVs sold. theguardian.com

Second, China's waning demand for oil will precipitate lower oil prices (it’s like someone already predicted that…). qcintel.com

Which conflicts with The Donald’s plan to “drill, baby, drill.” axios.com, forbes.com

China’s Automotive Expansion

The BYD Shenzen, the world’s largest car carrier, set sail this week. This monster vessel can carry more than 9,000 vehicles as BYD continues its ambition to expand and sell its vehicles around the world. electrek.co, carnewschina.com

Chinese officials and automakers are interested in acquiring Volkswagen's factories, which are slated for closure. reuters.com

The US finalizes their Chinese vehicle ban. theverge.com

Must Know Musk News

Starship explodes and interrupts air traffic. US FAA pauses SpaceX launches. Elon turns the mishap into a meme. nytimes.com, theverge.com

A Dutch pension fund sold its entire stake in Tesla. businessinsider.com

Tesla is discounting Cybertrucks as they shift production over to Model Y. businessinsider.com

UK Police have seized an imported Cybertruck as it is not road-legal in the country. electrek.co

Rise Of The Machines

LG develops a humanoid robot leveraging AI agent Q9. interestingengineering.com

2025 might be the year that Samsung makes its home assistant robot, the Samsung Ballie, a thing. techcrunch.com

Energy

The Czech Republic boosts the capacity of the TAL pipeline, ending the country's need to import Russian oil. reuters.com

US Department of Energy announced $1.2 billion in funding to replace Puerto Rico’s fossil fuel-based electricity production with solar and battery storage. electrek.co

UAE energy firm Masdar signed a $15 billion renewable energy deal with the Philippines to develop solar, wind and battery energy storage systems. reuters.com

But Wait, There’s More

Compact electric truck start-up TELO partners with Aptera to add solar to their pint-sized trucks to enable off-grid range. aptera.us

GM and OnStar have been banned from selling customer geolocation and driving behaviour data for 5 years. theverge.com

GM has an engine problem. freep.com

VW is considering expanding and deepening its partnership with Rivian. reuters.com

VW ID.7 Pro S can drive an impressive 941 km on a single charge. cleantechnica.com

VW’s CFO wants their German plants to improve productivity. reuters.com

Stellantis drops the planned long-range variant of the Ram 1500 REV from production. They will continue with the production of the shorter-range EV option and the Ramcharger (EREV). moparinsiders.com

Rivian’s electric van was the best-selling electric van in the US last year. It outsold the Ford E-Transit and Mercedes-Benz eSprinter combined. insideevs.com

Nissan is set to receive 340,000 EV powertrains annually from JATCO at their Sunderland, UK plant. reuters.com

Polestar announces Polestar 7 SUV (and it might not be able to be sold in the US based on Chinese vehicle ban rules). theverge.com

Surprising absolutely nobody, EV start-up and maker of funky van-like trucks, Canoo files for bankruptcy. reuters.com

Honda still wants Nissan, but not Renault. motor1.com

In the absence of federally funded iZEV rebates, some Canadian OEMs are covering the difference for the time being to make EVs more affordable. autonews.com

US automakers sue their own government over automatic emergency braking rules set to be instituted in 2029. theverge.com

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer warned that 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico could harm the US auto sector, increase vehicle prices and ultimately benefit China. reuters.com

CNBC wrote a piece explaining how Nissan's profits dropped 90% in a single year. cnbc.com

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