Growdy's 7 Predictions For 2025

2025 Predictions

#1 BYD will become the #1 automaker in the world (by sales)

Not all of the year-end sales numbers for 2024 are in. However, what is clear is that BYD went from not being on anyone’s radar a couple of years ago to being one of the top-selling auto manufacturers in the world.

In August, mid-year sales data suggested BYD had inched into the top 10 as the seventh-largest OEM by sales volume. electrek.co

Cleantechnica reported that BYD may landed second behind Toyota for global sales in November. cleantechnica.com

Reuters gave a preview of how 2024 might have ended. “BYD is on course to top its annual sales target of 4 million vehicles, which would put it ahead of Japan's Honda and Detroit-based Ford for 2024.” reuters.com

It will be a steep climb to beat Toyota in 2025. But if any OEM can claw the top sales spot away from Toyota this year, it’s BYD.

#2 Infiniti will get killed off in the Nissan-Honda merger

Infiniti has been in trouble for a while. topspeed.com

In August, Doug DeMuro included Infiniti in his list of brands he expected would fail in 2024. youtube.com

There were rumours that Infiniti was already planning to pull out of China. carnewschina.com

And there was a lot of coverage at the end of 2024 that US Infiniti stores were in so much trouble that they were allowed to collapse locations into other Nissan stores. caranddriver.com

Once the Honda and Nissan merger is complete, there won’t be much of a compelling reason for Infiniti to continue in the face of the much stronger presence of Acura.

#3 Honda will get more serious about trucks

Nissan needs to merge with Honda to survive. carscoops.com

But what does Honda need beyond the obvious market-share expansion and maybe some EV tech? Even their CEO wasn’t sure he could explain it, saying, “That’s a difficult one.” cleantechnica.com

The answer, I think, is trucks.

I have no data or articles to support this particular prediction.

Honda has a real opportunity to expand into full-size and more compact pick-ups, leveraging the assets provided by the Titan and Frontier nameplates.

But how awesome would a Nissan Frontier with a Honda engine be?

Pretty fucking awesome.

#4 Tesla’s US sales will lean more Republican than Democrat

Something happened to Elon Musk. It’s unclear when it happened, but it did.

He went full dark gothic MAGA. reuters.com

And that’s kinda a problem considering how predominately liberal (Democrat) his Tesla buying audience has historically leaned.

Then there’s the Cybertruck problem.

Although there were “millions” of pre-orders, actual deliveries and sales of the vehicle are numbered in the tens of thousands. electrek.co

I hypothesized back in November that Elon has gone MAGA to try to lure more conservative (Republican) truck buyers into the Tesla camp. thechangeoptimist.com

This, again, might explain this Tucker Carlson review of Cybertruck. youtube.com

Can Elon get more Republicans to buy his vehicles in 2025? (Maybe)

Will he have more children with employees of his companies this year? (Most likely, yes)

#5 Trump will allow CATL to set up shop in the US

China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Limited, or CATL, is the world’s largest battery maker for electric vehicles. theguardian.com

Ford wanted to work with CATL on a North American joint venture that got stalled due to legal issues and concerns around CATL’s spotty human rights track record. reuters.com

GM also wants to work with CATL (apparently unconcerned about the messy human rights stuff) by redirecting their tech through Japan. bloomberg.com

Elon and Tesla already work with CATL.

Trump has made it clear that he will remove regulatory issues for anyone or company that is willing to invest a billion dollars into the US. cnbc.com

Guess who has billions of dollars? Answer: CATL. reuters.com

#6 EV battery costs will continue to drop (making EVs cheaper)

EV battery prices continue to drop. bnnbloomberg.ca

In China, these price drops have resulted in BEVs becoming cheaper than PHEVs, EREVs, and ICE vehicles.

Goldman Sachs predicts that electric vehicle battery prices will fall by almost 50% by the end of the year. goldmansachs.com

And I agree with Goldman.

#7 Crude oil prices will also drop (but you won’t notice much)

The US smashed their oil production record output several times last year, hitting a record high in October. reuters.com

In fact, they produced more oil than any country in the history of the world, ever. eia.gov

Canadian exports increased thanks to the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion. thechangeoptimist.com

Commodity experts predict that the price of crude may drop to $50 a barrel in 2025. financialpost.com

Oddly, the drop in the price of crude is not likely to be proportionally experienced by consumers at the pumps.

Gas will continue to be bloody expensive.

China’s Automotive Expansion

BYD has more R&D staff than any other OEM. carnewschina.com

BYD plans to expand into South Korea. electrek.co

NIO has nearly three thousand battery swap stations in China. cnevpost.com

Xpeng CEO expects the EV price war in China to continue. electrek.co

The Chinese government has passed some updated legislation to accelerate and encourage the deployment of autonomous vehicles. reuters.com

Must Know Musk News

“A Tesla Cybertruck exploded just outside of the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada, on New Year’s Day, law enforcement authorities have confirmed. One person is dead inside the Cybertruck, and seven minor injuries have been reported, according to Las Vegas Sheriff Kevin McMahill.” theverge.com

Starlink will roll out direct-to-cell services in Ukraine. theglobeandmail.com

Tesla has completed the construction of its Shanghai Megafactory for energy storage (BESS) production. cnevpost.com

The German government accused Elon of trying to influence its election. cbc.ca

Elon has been staying at a $2,000-a-night Mar-a-Lago cottage so he can be close to The Donald. Don’t worry, he can afford it. independent.co.uk

Rise Of The Machines

Chinese robotics company AgiBot has unveiled the largest humanoid manipulation dataset, aiming to accelerate AI robot training. interestingengineering.com

OpenAI is considering getting into robots. techcrunch.com

Energy

Trump demands that the UK "open up" the ageing North Sea oil and gas basin and get rid of wind farms. reuters.com

Biden is expected to ban new oil and gas drilling in sections of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. nytimes.com

Venezuela's 2024 oil exports climb 10.5% YoY. reuters.com

But Wait, There’s More

ICYMI: Subaru beat out Toyota on the Consumer Reports' brand reliability report. newatlas.com

US new-car sales rose 2.2% in 2024 YoY. reuters.com

Nine out of ten new cars sold in Norway last year were fully electric. reuters.com

Neal E. Boudette from the New York Times kinda expects the Honda-Nissan merger to fail. nytimes.com

Stellantis Italy's output falls 37% in 2024; car production hits a 68-year low. reuters.com

Volkswagen’s software division, Cariad, inadvertently exposed the precise location data of 800,000 electric vehicle owners stored in Amazon’s cloud storage service. theverge.com, techcrunch.com

Volkswagen lifted the stop-sale on ID.4s after they fixed their door problems. theverge.com, autonews.com

In the US, Ford is extending their free home charging promotion until the end of March 2025. theverge.com

Rivian finished 2024 with 51,579 electric SUVs, trucks, and van sales. techcrunch.com

Lucid starts shipping the Gravity SUV. teslarati.com

Scout Motors EVs will have satellite-based data connectivity. techcrunch.com

Lamborghini may be benchmarking the capabilities of the Hyundai Ionic 5 N. motor1.com

There is some indication that Carvana’s “turnaround” might be bullshit. cnbc.com

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