The US Is Preparing For The Wrong Future

The US Is Preparing For The Wrong Future

This week, The Donald announced that the US will impose 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts. nytimes.com,

You’d be hard-pressed to find anyone in the automotive industry that thinks this is a good idea. reuters.com

Sky News's Ed Conway explains the impact of the latest tariffs in this YouTube video. youtube.com

This tariff shitshow is intended to bring automotive manufacturing jobs back to the US using the justification that imported auto parts and vehicles somehow pose a “critical threat” to US national security (there’s probably a group chat about it on Signal). whitehouse.gov

Most industry folk and economists agree that this won’t work. The only likely outcome is higher prices for vehicles. The legality of the tariffs is also in question. Does international manufacturing pose a security risk to the US? It hasn’t for the last 75 years, so why does it now? paulkrugman.substack.com, apricitas.io, youtube.com

The Donald called these tariffs “permanent”. Analysts believe the tariffs will be met with retaliation and won't stick for long due to the cost increase implications. usatoday.com

Only Shawn Fain and the UAW (initially) agreed with these tariff policies. cbsnews.com, uaw.org

But that alignment didn’t last long. Shawn was on side with The Donald until he signed a separate executive order ending collective bargaining for federal unions. washingtonpost.com, whitehouse.gov

I agree with economists that without significant government funding and subsidies, there is no logical way for automotive manufacturing to return to the US. Subsidising any industry doesn’t appear to be in the script for The Donald and DOGE as they dismantle and defund existing US government infrastructure. theguardian.com

At the same time, we’re witnessing a seismic shift in technology, with advances in artificial intelligence (AI) predicted to upend the labour market in ways we can’t fully predict. We know that AI will create some new jobs and eliminate others. In either event, AI will become a more significant part of our daily lives at work. ey.com, deloitte.com

Bill Gates recently said that he believes that advances in AI will mean that humans will no longer be needed “for most things” over the next decade. cnbc.com

The Donald’s best friend, Elon, has a similar vision for the future. That vision includes building millions of Tesla Optimus humanoid robots that will operate on Tesla’s factory floors starting this year—and he’s not alone. inc.com

Pretty much every OEM on the planet is working to design and build AI-powered humanoid robots. In most cases, they plan to augment or replace existing manufacturing roles. drive.com.au

China’s Xpeng believes their robot business might even outpace their automotive business in just a few years. scmp.com

Robots are not yet capable of replacing all tasks in a factory. But they can replace some tasks.

What jobs does the Trump administration think they are bringing back to America?

By my read, the US is preparing for the wrong version of the future.

China’s Automotive Expansion

The Yangwang U7 is a supersedan with a surprisingly reasonable price. caranddriver.com

Nio starts deliveries of its ET9 flagship sedan. cnevpost.com

BYD takes the Shark to Thailand. carnewschina.com

Jetour, the adventure vehicle sub-brand from Chery, starts pre-sales for its Traveller “Interstellar Guardian” SUV. carnewschina.com

Must Know Musk News

Elon sold his media company to his AI company. cnbc.com

ICYMI: Tesla sales in the EU are down 49%. mashable.com

“Tesla Takedown” organizers have promised their biggest day of global action this weekend, encouraging thousands to protest outside Tesla showrooms, dealerships, and even charging stations. techcrunch.com

The FBI launched a task force to investigate Tesla attacks. theverge.com

Many argue that Tesla is the only near-term winner in The Donald’s tariff war. techcrunch.com

Elon tries to remind people that Tesla isn’t immune to tariffs. reuters.com

Tesla will start sales in Saudi Arabia next month. reuters.com

The Canadian Government put all vehicle incentive payouts to Tesla on hold while they investigate the mysterious 8,669 rebate claims filed by Tesla during the final days of the Zero-Emission Vehicles incentive program. autonews.com

Elon will face some former Twitter (X) shareholders in court over an alleged securities fraud case. cnbc.com

SpaceX could make billions off the backs of several new government contracts. nytimes.com

X’s director of engineering, Haofei Wang, suddenly left the company this week. theverge.com

Rise Of The Machines

Tesla plans to make 5,000 Optimus robots this year. theverge.com

Agribot says, “Hold my beer,” and plans to build its own robot legion. interestingengineering.com

Norwegian robotics startup 1X plans to start early tests of its humanoid robot, Neo Gamma, in “a few hundred to a few thousand” homes by the end of 2025. techcrunch.com

Germany’s Neura Robotics plans to give Chinese robotics firms a run for their money. interestingengineering.com

iRobot adds LiDAR to its latest gaggle of Roomba vacuums. notebookcheck.net

Energy

Oil prices fell on fears that US tariffs could spark a global recession. reuters.com

US oil producers reduced the number of operating gas rigs by 5% this week. reuters.com

The US battery storage market set another record in 2024. electrek.co

CATL has a new, cheaper sodium-ion battery with an energy density similar to their LFP batteries. notebookcheck.net

But Wait, There’s More

Nissan aspires to turn over a new Leaf. motortrend.com

Ford CEO Jim Farley says that tariff impact is “likely to be significant.” (Thank you, Captain Obvious.) autonews.com

Ferrari has a plan to survive tariffs: raise prices. cnbc.com

Toyota and Honda said production will continue at their Canadian plants regardless of tariffs. autonews.com

Hyundai wants to be “made in America”. reuters.com

Hyundai’s new Android-based infotainment system looks suspiciously like what you find in a Tesla. theverge.com

Stellantis plans to continue to buy CO2 credits from Tesla. reuters.com

Stellantis initiates a new round of buyouts for some workers. cbc.ca

GM, Pilot, and EVgo reached a notable milestone in their EV charging plans, now offering fast charging at more than 130 locations across 25 US states. gm.com

Porsche says yes to Dolby Atmos and Alexa but no to Apple CarPlay. Life is about choices. theverge.com

Rivian launches a new brand to support their micro-mobility plans. insideevs.com

Polestar launches an electric mountain bike. insideevs.com

Lucid plans to ramp up customer deliveries for their Gravity SUV by the end of April. techcrunch.com

Aptera goes on a road trip. youtube.com

The Donald has pardoned Trevor Milton, the founder of Nikola Motors, who was convicted of defrauding investors in 2023. theverge.com

Quebec resumes $4,000 EV rebate. autonews.com

You read to the bottom. Amazing!